MINDSET, UMWELT
Kommentare 418

Schmelzende Antarktis könnte den Meeresspiegel stärker anheben als erwartet

Da die steigenden globalen Temperaturen das Eis in der Antarktis weiter schmelzen lassen, sagen Wissenschaftler voraus, dass wir in den kommenden Jahrzehnten vor ernsthaften Problemen stehen werden − vom steigenden Meeresspiegel über verheerende Stürme bis hin zu Temperaturen, die noch schneller steigen, weil es weniger Eis gibt, das die Wärme reflektiert.

Nun stellt sich heraus, dass all diese Probleme noch schlimmer sein könnten als von den Wissenschaftlern vorhergesagt, so die in der Zeitschrift Climate Dynamics veröffentlichten Forschungsergebnisse. Bestehende Modelle neigten dazu, das Schmelzen des Eises auf der Grundlage durchschnittlicher Bedingungen im Laufe der Zeit vorherzusagen, aber die Berücksichtigung schwankender Extremwerte zeichnet ein weitaus düstereres Bild.

Antarktischer Eisschild könnte 20 Jahre früher schmelzen

Klimamodelle müssen darstellen, wie chaotische Wettermuster sein können, argumentierte der Studienautor und Klimaforscher Chris Forest aus Penn State in einer Pressemitteilung. Unter Berücksichtigung dieser Schwankungen zeigt Forests Arbeit, dass der antarktische Eisschild 20 Jahre früher als erwartet zurückgehen könnte.

Berücksichtigt man dies, so könnte das schmelzende Eis den Meeresspiegel zusätzlich zu den 27 bis 38 cm, die einfachere Modelle bis zum Jahr 2100 vorhersagen, um weitere 7 bis 11 cm ansteigen lassen.

„Wir wissen, dass die Eisschilde schmelzen, wenn die globalen Temperaturen steigen, aber es bestehen weiterhin Unsicherheiten darüber, wie viel und wie schnell dies geschehen wird“, sagte Forest in der Mitteilung.

Von Experten unterschätzt?

Das deutet darauf hin, dass Experten unterschätzt haben, wie schlimm die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels sein könnten, was bedeutet, dass sie möglicherweise ihren Kurs ändern müssen.

„Diese zusätzliche Eisschmelze wird die Hurrikan-Sturmfluten auf der ganzen Welt beeinflussen“, sagte Forest. „Es ist wichtig, diese Prozesse, die zum zusätzlichen Eisverlust beitragen, besser zu verstehen, da die Eisschilde viel schneller schmelzen, als wir erwartet haben“.

futurism.com / phys.org

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