UMWELT
Veröffentlicht am Januar 27, 2022
Kommentare 5.553

Der Preis für den Netto-Null-Übergang

von Redaktion LIFECHANGE.AT

Der Preis für einen Netto-Null-Übergang beträgt Untersuchungen zufolge 3,5 Billionen US-Dollar (rund 3,1 Billionen Euro) pro Jahr. Aber das ist immer noch billiger als nichts zu tun.

Die gesamte Wirtschaft muss sich ändern

Dutzende von Ländern und Tausende von Unternehmen haben sich endlich dazu verpflichtet, Netto-Null-Emissionen zu erreichen. Das bedeutet, dass sie die eigene Umweltverschmutzung reduzieren und ihre verbleibenden Emissionen durch Natur und Technologie ausgeglichen werden, die CO2 absorbieren können. Aber damit die Welt das Ziel von Netto-Null-Emissionen bis 2050 tatsächlich erreichen kann – ein entscheidender Schritt, um einige der schlimmsten Klimaauswirkungen zu vermeiden – müssten Fortschritte in viel größerem Maßstab erfolgen. (Die Pläne müssen auch glaubwürdig sein, nicht nur Marketingjargon.) Die gesamte Wirtschaft, vom Anbau von Nahrungsmitteln bis zum Antrieb von Flugzeugen, muss sich verändern.

In einem neuen Bericht wirft McKinsey & Company einen Blick darauf, wie sich dieser massive Wandel auf Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft auswirken könnte und warum es wichtig ist, dass er strategisch erfolgt. „Wir sprechen über den Netto-Null-Übergang und vergessen dann, dass es sich um einen Übergang handelt“, sagt Mekala Krishnan, Partner am McKinsey Global Institute. „Das Ziel dieser Forschung war also wirklich, die Art und das Ausmaß dieser Verschiebungen zu verstehen. Denn ohne dies besteht die Gefahr, dass wir entweder nicht genügend Maßnahmen ergreifen oder uns auf eine ungeordnetere Reise in Richtung Netto-Null begeben.“

Investitionsausgaben für Netto-Null

Als die Analysten ein Szenario betrachteten, in dem die Welt netto Null erreichen könnte, und in 69 Länder sektorübergreifend in die Details eintauchten, berechneten sie, dass sich die Investitionsausgaben für Energie- und Landnutzungsanlagen zwischen 2021 und 2050 auf 275 Billionen US-Dollar summieren könnten, d. h. durchschnittlich 9,2 Billionen US-Dollar pro Jahr. Das sind 3,5 Billionen Dollar mehr pro Jahr als die derzeitigen Investitionsausgaben in diesen Bereichen.

Das Geld fließt bereits in emissionsärmere Infrastrukturen, aber „es geht um die Rohre und den Markt, um das Geld an die richtigen Stellen und mit der richtigen Geschwindigkeit zu bringen“, sagt Dickon Pinner, globaler Leiter der Nachhaltigkeitspraxis von McKinsey. (Die tatsächlichen Kosten hängen von verschiedenen Faktoren ab, darunter davon, wie schnell der Übergang erfolgt und ob einige technologische Durchbrüche niedrigere Kosten ermöglichen. Es gilt aber zu beachten, dass die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels die Weltwirtschaft jedes Jahr viel mehr kosten werden).

Wenn alte, umweltbelastende Infrastruktur abgebaut wird, müssen neue emissionsarme Anlagen mit der richtigen Geschwindigkeit hochgefahren werden oder es besteht die Gefahr von Lieferengpässen und Preiserhöhungen. Wenn es nicht gut gehandhabt wird, könnten die Energiepreise destabilisiert werden, und die Verbraucher mit den niedrigsten Einkommen könnten am stärksten betroffen sein. Wenn Regierungen und Unternehmen auch nicht rechtzeitig in die Ausbildung von Arbeitern aus umweltschädlichen Industrien in neue Fähigkeiten investieren, werden Arbeiter verdrängt. Insgesamt schätzt der Bericht, dass der Netto-Null-Übergang bis 2050 weltweit rund 200 Millionen direkte und indirekte Arbeitsplätze schaffen wird, aber auch 185 Millionen Arbeitsplätze verloren gehen werden; Diese Arbeitnehmer benötigen Hilfe bei der Suche nach neuen Jobs.

Tempo des Wandels in Richtung Netto-Null erhöhen

„Wenn wir nicht die richtigen Mechanismen einführen, um einige der von uns beschriebenen Anpassungen zu unterstützen, besteht die Gefahr, dass bestimmte Gemeinschaften, bestimmte Gruppen von Arbeitnehmern zurückbleiben“, sagt Krishnan. Daher wird es bei einem geordneten Übergang wichtig nachzudenken, wie die Anpassungen tatsächlich gehandhabt werden.

Auch das Tempo des Wandels spielt eine Rolle: Im Moment bewegen wir uns global nicht schnell genug, um das Ziel zu erreichen, und je länger wir warten, desto abrupter müssen spätere Änderungen sein. Die gesamte Gesellschaft − von der Regierung über Unternehmen und Finanzinstitute bis hin zu Einzelpersonen − muss zusammenarbeiten, um den Übergang erfolgreich zu gestalten. Für Unternehmen bedeutet das, agile Pläne zur Dekarbonisierung zu erstellen und das Klima in die Entscheidungsfindung zu integrieren. Aber es bedeutet oft auch, mehr zu tun. Man muss in manchen Fällen versuchen, das Schiff seiner Branche oder seiner Region neu zu steuern.

fastcompany.com

 

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